The Boston Celtics: A 2025-26 Offseason Outlook
Overview
In a league where every variable and scenario is up for study, and control, one, injuries, remains both unpredictable and uncontrollable. Injuries have the power to completely reshape the league landscape at any given moment. And that is exactly what happened on May 13th with 3:07 minutes left in the fourth quarter of Game 4 between the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics. Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum, having suffered a non-contact injury, fell to the floor while clutching the back of his right ankle. Tatum’s fall to the floor, writhing in pain, yielded little surprise when, less than 24 hours later, it was announced that he had ruptured his Achilles tendon and had already undergone surgery. All it took was this singular moment for the league to be flipped on its head. Coming off a 2023–24 season in which the Celtics dominated their way to the 18th championship in franchise history, expectations for this season were sky-high — and rightfully so. In the eyes of many, the Celtics organization entered the season as title favorites. And even though the team started the series down 0–2 to the Knicks, many believed the Celtics would still overcome the odds in the push to defend the title-- seeking to become the first team to win back-to-back championships since the 2017–2018 Golden State Warriors.
However, while this push to retain the title was ongoing, a question hovered over the franchise about the future of its uber-talented roster. The question was (and is) whether what is projected to be the most expensive roster in NBA history (when factoring in both the 2025–26 Team Salary and the subsequent projected Repeater Luxury Tax payments) can realistically be kept together. Regardless of whether the team went on to win this season’s championship, this question remains central to league discourse. It is not just the $465 million price tag that poses a challenge, but the barrage of penalties and restrictions that come with being a 2nd Apron team. These Apron constraints severely limit roster-building flexibility, leaving the Front Office with little room and a lot of rigidity within which to maneuver. The summer of 2025–26 was already shaping up to be a fascinating inflection point for the league’s best team. However, with the Tatum injury taking the team’s best player from the court for what is likely to be more than a year, the uncertainty and the stakes have only grown. Suddenly, many of the Celtics’ known variables and scenarios are clouded by an air of mystery. It truly feels as though everything and anything could be on the table as this organization navigates the upcoming summer. Cardinal to that navigation is the Tatum injury, and the team’s seeming pursuit of lowering its Team Salary, Tax Payments, all the while attempting to stabilize and restore its financial health.
This newsletter will present a foundational analysis of the Celtics’ current financial picture and strategic standing as it heads into the 2025-26 offseason. As such, I will highlight the team’s largest requisites, explore the most pressing questions the team faces, and forecast both the organization’s tools for both roster-building and the key factors that might influence its planning. Lastly, I will present my own perspective about how the Celtics should approach the summer, as well as potential pathways forward.
Finally, if you would like a deliverable version of this newsletter that has additional tidbits of information, feel free to download the PDF attached below!
Season Recap
Record: 61-21 (2nd in ECF)
Playoff Result: Lost to the New York Knicks in 6 games in the 2nd Round
Notable Moves:
Acquired draft considerations from the Rockets for Jaden Springer and draft considerations
Extended Jrue Holiday on a 4-year $135M contract
Extended Sam Hauser on a 4-year $45M contract
Extended Jayson Tatum on a Designated Veteran Extension (Super Max)
Main Offseason Questions
What now?
How much should the Tatum injury impact and/or change the team’s previous planned offseason strategies, if at all?
How does the team want to navigate and use the 2025-26 season? Will it be a gap year, or a refresh opportunity?
Will the team shift into a reset, keep the main core together while trimming down the edges, or will the team maintain the status quo?
How can and will the team shed salary to lower the Tax payment?
Will it attempt to get under the 2nd Apron completely?
What is worth more? Seeking the most value in return trades as possible, or clearing Cap Space?
Could every player under contract be available for the right offer?
Who is in the main core that the team wants to build around in the next timeline
Who has more trade value: Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porzingis?
What happens with Kornet and Horford?
Biggest Needs
To shed salary to lower the Repeater Tax payment and attempt to position itself to get under the 2nd Apron
Clarity vis-à-vis the future
Hit on draft picks
Front court depth as Porzingis’s future is up in the air (and he is injury prone), Horford could retire (and is a UFA), and Kornet is a UFA
If the timeline is shifted, players that fit within it from an age and development trajectory stand point
The Financials
As currently constructed, the Celtics head into the 2025-26 offseason a projected $19.9M over the 2nd Apron, $31.8M over the 1st Apron, and $39.8M over the Tax, and with twelve contracts on the books (this does not include potential draft pick salary slots). Of the twelve, ten are fully guaranteed. The organization has $0M in waived salary, $0M in unlikely bonuses (which would count toward Apron salary calculation), will have three UFAs hit the market, and zero RFAs. Additionally, one player has a TO, and two have contracts that are NG. Currently, the Celtics face a projected $238.5M Repeater Tax payment, which, in addition to the $227.7M payroll, means that the total roster payment will top $465M. Looking forward past 2025-26, as currently constructed, the Celtics project to continue to have severely restricted roster-building flexibility impacted by being a likely Apron team. The organization projects to have $202M in guaranteed salary in 2026-27 (seven contracts), and $218M in 2027-28 (seven contracts), along with what would again be very high Tax payments.
All in all, in this CBA and financial landscape, it is difficult, if not impossible, to operate from the Celtics’ financial standing for a prolonged period. The Celtics rightfully deserve a lot of praise for how the team has been constructed and how its roster was built out—by identifying ways to creatively upgrade its core by searching for distressed assets and players who are undervalued, while keeping its asset base largely intact. Additionally, the team has done very well vis-à-vis maintaining a large degree of team control over its books, extending Tatum, Brown, Holiday, White, Hauser, and Pritchard over the last number of seasons. However, ironically, it is this very long-term team control that may cause the Celtics a headache. If the team decides to lower its Team Salary, it does not necessarily have the ability to shed money by simply letting players leave via Free Agency, which has been a tool that certain organizations have utilized in this new CBA environment.
Free Agents, Options, and Tools to Upgrade
As stated earlier, how the Front Office perceives the team’s standing in a post-injury Tatum world will ultimately shape how the offseason is navigated — and how the 2025–26 season will be positioned. There are two predominant choices. Does the organization treat 2025–26 as a gap year, aiming to re-enter title contention in 2026–27 when Tatum is expected to return, retaining the rough outlines of the current core? Or does it view this as an opportunity to reset the roster and the timeline entirely? These strategic questions will directly influence the team’s offseason approach and its resulting financial and competitive standing. As currently constructed, the Celtics are projected to land deep into the 2nd Apron, triggering the harshest roster-building restrictions under the new CBA. This financial reality will almost certainly evolve as the offseason unfolds, and as key decisions are made. The Cap Sheet that Boston enters the offseason with will likely look very different by the time the offseason ends. If the organization remains over the 2nd Apron, it will face significant limitations, including (among the other 1st Apron restrictions):
The inability to use any portion of the mid-level exception
Prohibition on aggregating salaries in trades (if the team remains above the 2nd Apron post-trade)
Inability to send cash out in trades
Inability to acquire a player using a Traded Player Exception (TPE) created via a Sign-and-Trade
Additionally, because the team is finishing the 2024–25 season above the 2nd Apron, its 2032 first-round pick will be frozen, making the pick ineligible as an asset for trade. If Boston chooses to stay above the Aprons and keep its roster intact, its flexibility for adding players will be extremely limited. The only viable mechanisms would be:
Signing players to veteran minimum contracts
Using the second-round pick exception
Re-signing or extending players using Bird rights
Trading out a single player and breaking that salary slot into multiple smaller contracts
Simply getting under the 2nd Apron would make available significantly more pathways for roster-building. However, the mere fact that the Celtics might have access to more building block tools does not mean that the organization will be able to use them. This is because of how many of these newly added tools still carry some form of Apron Hard Cap implications. If the team is able to fill its roster out with the space it creates and still be under the 2nd Apron, then it could tap into the added flexibility. If not, it would require more roster tinkering and precision. Additionally, it must be said that if the goal is to get under the 2nd Apron, there is no guarantee that the Celtics will be able to accomplish this feat during this specific offseason. While there are certain obvious salaries that could be shed, if such salaries are able to be removed from the Celtics’ books will be largely impacted by the league landscape as much as anything. (This will be addressed in a later section.)
Finally, the Celtics have one extension-eligible player of note in Porzingis. However, in my opinion, the chances of the team extending Porzingis are low. First, a certain set of circumstances would have to arise, and second, Porzingis would have to agree to take a discount. All of these variables combine to make Porzingis’ extension uncertain.
Contracts and Valuations
Regarding the individual contracts, due to being a Repeater Tax team, every single dollar allocated is not actually a single dollar. Additionally, the tax bracket system has changed from the previous CBA. During the 2024-25 season, tax brackets began expanding in alignment with salary cap growth, beginning with $5 million increments. In 2025-26, the Luxury Tax system will also undergo certain adjustments: the tax rates for the first two brackets will decrease, while all other brackets will see increases. In other words, the respective multipliers for tax brackets 3-10 will increase, while the multipliers for brackets 1 and 2 will decrease. In plain English, the more a team is over the tax threshold, the more a team will pay. For example, if the Celtics were to keep the roster exactly the same and sign a standard veteran minimum contract for a player with 2 years of service, it would correlate simply to a $2.2M cap hit. However, the damage would be roughly a $20M increase to the Tax bill. And, if the Celtics re-signed Luke Kornet to a deal that had a 2025-26 Cap hit of $5M, as currently constructed, it would add an additional $43M to the Tax. This reality does not even factor in the potential Horford situation (with Horford being a UFA although he reportedly is considering whether to retire or to continue to play).
Finally, in terms of potential monetary subtractions, if the team was able to remove Hauser’s contract from the books (a $10M cap hit in 2025-26), its Tax Payment would drop from $238M to $157M, an approximate $81M decrease. If the team completely eliminated Holiday’s salary slot, it would shed $215M in tax payments. And if it was Porzingis’ salary slot that was to be eliminated, the tax payment would drop more than $209M. All in all, the Celtics’ tax payment would be under $30M if either of these moves were made, and the team would have realistic opportunities to completely duck the Tax altogether based upon other subsequent moves.
The Tatum Factor
No one wants to see injuries occur. However, the reality of the NBA is that injuries are commonplace and can be just as impactful in determining championships and shaping the league’s landscape as any trade, signing, or draft pick. With that in mind, it is not controversial to say that the Achilles injury Tatum suffered with roughly three minutes to go in Game 4 against the Knicks is one of the most drastic and consequential events in recent league history. This injury does not just sideline one of the NBA’s premier superstars for an extended period; it also throws the future of a Celtics organization (one that has sat atop the league’s hierarchy for many years) into uncertainty. That is what happens when arguably the best player is taken off arguably the best team. In other words, the entire league landscape shifts. Previously set plans and long-term strategies must be reconsidered, as the Celtics and other teams adjust to the unexpected reality.
The League Landscape Factor
If the Celtics Front Office does decide to cut money, it will not be a simple process. This is because currently only one team (the Brooklyn Nets) projects to have substantial Cap Space. The Nets could absorb a large salary ($30M+) without having to send any money back to Boston, which would wipe the salary slot clean of the Celtics’ books. However, the Nets might not want to use its space to absorb potential bad value contracts, and if they do, there will likely be a long list of teams who would want to take advantage. This means that the Nets will be able to leverage its trading partners against one another to acquire high-value assets that are attached to the chunk salary. And, if the Celtics are not able to send contracts to Brooklyn, it will need to take back money. Finally, there are roughly sixteen teams that could have access to the full NTMLE depending on moves made (or not made), which could become logical landing spots for a deal such as Hauser’s (if the Celtics want to move off of it for Tax purposes).
Approach and Objectives
As stated above, the first order of business for the Celtics' Front Office is to answer a series of foundational questions. First: How should the Tatum injury affect and potentially change the team’s previously planned offseason strategy? Second: How should the organization approach the 2025–26 offseason and the season itself - should it be a “gap year,” or a stepping-stone campaign with an eye toward a longer-term build? Third: Should the current competitive timeline remain in place, or should it shift with an eye toward the long term? And fourth: What is worth more, seeking the most potential value in return trades, or clearing Cap Space? The answers to these questions (along with the others listed in the questions section) will shape the Celtics’ entire offseason approach, from internal planning to trade talks to negotiation tactics. This is what happens when your best player suffers a significant injury. It has a cascading, multi-layered impact, and it is likely to diminish title chances next season.
Right now, I believe there are three realistic strategic pathways the organization could take:
Reset: Initiate a full teardown by making every player not named Tatum available for trade. This path would aim to maximize return value, replenish the asset pool, and re-center the team’s timeline around Tatum’s eventual return.
Reshape: Retain the core but trim around the edges to rebalance the books, shedding Tax payments and potentially ducking under the 2nd Apron.
Run it back or add: Either maintain the status quo and keep the main core entirely intact, or, attempt to add a high impact big-name player that better fits the new timeline.
Of the three, I believe the first two are both far more plausible, and I will expand upon both in the “Potential Pathways” section below. Without question, prior to the Tatum injury, Boston needed to shed salary. Now, without its franchise player, and without the chance to pursue a three-peat (which might have justified bringing everyone back if they had repeated), the need to cut salary somewhere becomes even more urgent. As noted earlier, determining who the Front Office considers part of the long-term core is crucial. I personally see the roster (excluding free agents) being divided into the three following buckets:
Bucket #1: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard
Bucket #2: Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Sam Hauser
Bucket #3: Everyone else
How aggressively the team attacks this offseason will determine which of the “buckets” it draws from when re-shaping the roster. A more aggressive retool, such as the one proposed in Pathway #1 above (expanded upon below) could see players from both Buckets #1 and #2 moved. If Boston chooses to hold its previously identified core together (Pathway #2), expect outgoing trades to come primarily from Bucket #2. That said, the lines between these groups are not strictly drawn. The Front Office may intend to hold onto its core; however, if it receives an offer for a player in Bucket #1 that is too valuable to pass up, it could shift the entire calculus. The broader point is that this situation is fluid. The Front Office will have to decide whether to be proactive, shopping everyone on the team and “controlling” the market, or reactive, holding firm regarding certain players while remaining opportunistic about others.
In the following Potential Pathways section, plans #1 and #2 will be expanded upon.
Potential Paths
This pathway represents the reshaping option outlined above, with the Celtics’ Front Office opting to retain the core players from Bucket #1 that it views as foundational to moving forward, while trimming around the edges to rebalance the books, shed tax payments, and duck under the 2nd Apron. In this scenario, the Celtics would treat the 2025–26 offseason, and the season itself, as a gap year, betting that the team can return to title contention once Tatum returns. Taking a temporary step back would allow the organization to get below the 2nd Apron and reduce its Luxury Tax bill, thereby restoring a degree of roster-building flexibility and financial breathing room. This approach would reflect a significant level of trust in the core of Tatum, Brown, White, and Pritchard, the latter of whom could have an opportunity to grow into a starting role during the 2025–26 season. This quartet is projected to cost approximately $153 million in salary in 2026–27. Even though this represents a sizable sum, it is one that still leaves room to flesh out the rest of the roster. While the Celtics could potentially remain a tax-paying team in 2025–26 (barring a major salary dump with no money returned), this strategy positions the team more favorably for the future.
Since the players from Bucket #1 would be retained, the players in Bucket #2 - Porzingis, Holiday, and Hauser - would be the main candidates for potential trades. However, this process would be multi-layered and far from straightforward. Hauser might be the cleanest trade candidate. He is both on a team-friendly contract and has a coveted skill set as an elite shooter. Just as valuable, Hauser’s $10M salary fits within the full NTMLE, which means that slot could be used as a trade exception. The Celtics could likely receive an asset or two in return. However, more importantly, moving Hauser would save an estimated $80 million in Tax payments.
The real complexity begins with Porzingis and Holiday. There is no question that, when healthy, both players are high-level contributors who elevate their team on both ends. Porzingis, in particular, has a very rare and highly coveted skillset and player archetype. However, his durability presents a glaring concern. Porzingis played just 99 games over the last two regular seasons, missed much of Boston’s 2024 title run, and was significantly impacted by a mystery illness during the 2025 playoffs. Porzingis will be 30 at the start of next season and is on an expiring $30.7M deal—a factor that could be attractive to a team looking for short-term help and future cap space. The Celtics could either trade Porzingis now and let another team benefit from the expiring contract or keep him and use that natural expiration themselves to reset their books in 2026–27. That consideration could influence the decision to prioritize a trade of Holiday instead.
Holiday presents a different challenge. He will soon be 35 and is owed $104 million over the next three seasons, including a PO in Year 3. His performance took a slight dip this past year; however, his winning impact is undeniable. Both the Bucks and the Celtics won titles the year they each acquired him. So, while his price tag and age could hurt his value, Porzingis’ pedigree still carries weight. The Celtics’ desired trade return would depend on their goal: if it is purely financial relief, targeting expiring contracts makes sense - particularly in a Holiday trade. If the Celtics are also focused upon maintaining competitiveness in 2026–27, then distressed assets, younger players with upside, and picks could all be priorities.
Additionally, as stated in the “League Landscape Factor” section above, the potential roadblocks and pressure that the Celtics would have to navigate in trade discussions could become significantly more straightforward if the team is able to dump one of these players into Cap Space, specifically of the Nets. If the team is able to completely remove the Porzingis/Holiday salary slot, it would immediately go under the 2nd Apron, with space to fill out the roster, and much more flexibility and wiggle room. In fact, this would allow the Celtics to keep whichever of the players that it decides not to trade. The question becomes: are the Nets interested in absorbing those deals, and if so, how much would the Celtics need to attach to win the "Cap Space sweepstakes"? In such a scenario, the Celtics may have to consider attaching their 2026 1st Round pick, especially if they expect to still finish in the top six in the East despite Tatum’s absence (which would become more likely if it keeps together the main core). That pick could still carry enough value to entice a team with Cap Space to either bite or to be the building block in an offer. The team could also attempt to attach its picks in this upcoming draft as sweeteners.
Finally, the question must be asked: what is worth more: seeking the most potential value in return trades, or clearing Cap Space? If it is the former, the team might care less about taking back salaries. If it is the latter, the team could specifically push to dump a contract into the Nets’ Cap Space and have an increased willingness to attach assets to the player/contract to do so. If the Celtics organization is not able to completely wipe clean a salary slot, it will have to take contracts back that are in compliance with salary matching rules. The ramifications of this could impact what and who the team seeks in return packages. As long as the team maximizes the salary matching rules by taking back as little money as is reasonably possible, it would still (to a degree) accomplish its salary shedding goal.
This pathway represents the reset option, with the Celtics Front Office deciding that each and every player on the roster could be available for a price, indicating an increased willingness to trade the team’s key foundational players. To that end, the team would attempt to clean its Cap Sheet, clearing as much long-term salary as possible to realign with a newly created organizational timeline. This shift would be driven by a desire to maximize asset value. Ideally, the team would aim to offload long-term salary commitments in exchange for future flexibility, with an eye toward a more deliberate rebuilding of the roster. Because short-term competitiveness in 2025-26 would no longer be the priority, retaining its own 1st Round pick becomes more important, which contrasts with the path where the main core remains intact, and the team becomes more competitive as a result.
In general, if one examines the Celtics’ core, by the 2026-27 season (if Tatum was to return by then), the players would be the following ages: White 32, Brown 30, Holiday 36, Porzingis 31, Hauser 28, Pritchard 28, and Tatum 28. This would not be the oldest group in the NBA, but it is certainly not the youngest either. As mentioned above, what happens if the team gets an offer that it cannot refuse for a player such as White, who presumably every team in the league would want? At this moment, White’s trade value may never be higher, and he will be 32 by the next time Tatum is likely to take the court. When looking at what other high-end role players have fetched on the trade market (such as Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and, coincidentally, Holiday), the return package could solidify a strong draft asset cabinet, along with potentially adding a productive player or two. It would set the Celtics up to rebuild the team later down the line. That said, it would add an extra step, as acquiring the assets to then flip later for better pieces is always easier said than done.
Regarding Kornet, I believe that he should be retained, regardless of the pathway selected. The Celtics can likely get him to return at a good value number, and due to the murkiness of both Horford’s and Porzingis’ respective futures, Kornet could find himself in a starting role, with the chance to increase his value from the team perspective. That said, continuing with the focus on centers, in this pathway, if the goal is to maximize flexibility and enter a full reset, the chances of keeping Porzingis may actually rise (unless the team can get good value for him on the trade market), since having his expiring salary might actually add value for the organization (as explained in the first pathway section).
Potential Trade Partners *will be updated*: Nets, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Pistons, Kings, Timberwolves
Potential Trade Ideas *will be updated*:
Trade #1
Celtics: Derozan, Ellis, Pick(s)
Kings: Holiday
Trade #2
Celtics: Derozan, Murray
Kings: Holiday, two Veteran Minimums Via Minimum Exception
Trade #3
Celtics: A protected 1st OR two 2nds
An NTMLE Team: Hauser
Trade #4
Celtics: Holiday OR Porzingis, Pick 28 or a future protected 1st
Nets: Pick 36 or a future pick
Final Thoughts
The Celtics will be at the center of the offseason rumor mill and hold several of the summer’s biggest cards. How the organization chooses to play these cards will be both fascinating, and have a large trickle-down effect on the rest of the league landscape.