Jonathan Kuminga: A Warrior, But For How Much Longer?
An Extension Overview and Breakdown
Overview
Since Jonathan Kuminga was drafted, with the 7th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, there have been seminal questions about his future as a player. Certainly, his raw talent, versatility, and athleticism were and are evident, all combining to create a tantalizingly high ceiling for a player who is now only 21-years old. And yet, the questions remain. Originally, these questions were about fit and roster strategy, as the Warriors had selected a very raw prospect and placed him on a team attempting to compete for championships. The franchise attempted to combine a 2-timeline pathway: focusing upon challenging for titles while simultaneously developing young talent. The team successfully accomplished one of these timelines when the Warriors won a championship in 2021-2022, which was Kuminga’s rookie season. However, the young talent development pathway lagged behind. With time, questions about Kuminga’s fit and timelines turned to his development. In other words, what was he as a player, and, with an eye toward the future, what could he be. Despite making strides in terms of his development evidenced by a strong 2023-2024 season, questions about his overall fit and development still hover.
As a result of Kuminga’s recent positive season, new questions have arisen-- this time about his value and potential extension, as he became extension-eligible with the coming of the new league season. And for the past few weeks, Kuminga was subject to trade talk, as the Warriors reportedly chased a deal for Utah Jazz player Lauri Markkanen. The Jazz organization was seemingly hesitant to acquire Kuminga due to his upcoming contract negotiations, preferring Brandin Podziemski instead. However, this was all put to a close when the Jazz renegotiated and extended Markkanen’s contract. Hence, unexpected trade aside, Kuminga should remain with the Warrior organization for this upcoming season, which creates one of the most interesting rookie-scale extension candidate situations of the season-and one that is not straightforward whatsoever. This overview will profile Kuminga, his value, and contract comps, and will give an analytical glimpse into the Warriors’ current team-building and roster strategy situation in order to paint a clearer picture of what, in my opinion, a Kuminga extension could look like.
Finally, if you would like a slide deck + appendix version of this newsletter (for those who prefer visuals!) that has additional tidbits of information and stats, feel free to download the PDF attached below!
Kuminga Player Profile and Contract History
On-Court Value
Finishing Ability
Kuminga is one of the league’s premier finishers, shooting 74% (88th percentile) at the rim on high frequency (81st percentile). He is one of the most talented athletes in the league (6'11" wingspan and 38" vertical).
Importance to the Warriors: As a team, the Warriors have the 5th best shooting % at the rim; however, they are last in terms of frequency of shots. Having an explosive, such as Kuminga who excels at getting to the basket, helps on this front
Transition Ability
Kuminga is excellent in transition, averaging 1.28 PPP per transition opportunity. For players who average 3+ transition possessions a game, Kuminga ranks 10th in PPP.
Importance to the Warriors: The Warriors have the 26th lowest transition frequency in the league, and 28th lowest pts/possession in transition.
Corner 3pt Shooting
In each of the last 2 seasons, Kuminga has hit corner 3s at a 40%+ clip. (This could also hint at overall 3pt shooting potential and progression.)
Importance to the Warriors: The Warriors offense is built around 3pt shooting and the ability to space the floor (top 8 in both 3pt shooting and frequency). Accordingly, Kuminga’s ability to space the floor from the corners is key to try to keep defenses honest when defending him.
Versatile Defender
Kuminga has demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions across his career, giving him the ability to defend across the front court and switch onto guards. He ranks in the 79th percentile in D-EPM, 9th highest for players 22 or younger (3rd highest on the Warriors).
Importance to the Warriors: The Warriors rank 15th in defense (115.6). In the team’s championship season in 2021-2022, the Warriors ranked 2nd. Thus, there is a need to improve in this area if the team wants to get back to contention. Kuminga figures to be a building block on this end.
Positive Career Trajectory, as seen below by his Darko DPM chart below:
Warriors Financial Situation
The Warriors head into the 2024-25 season with $533,659 of 1st Apron Space. (In fact, the team is hard-capped at it.) The Warriors currently have 14 guaranteed contracts on the roster (and 3 2-ways plus 1 Exhibit 10). Curry is extension eligible (however, he will be impacted by the over-38 rule). With regard to 2025 and beyond, the Warriors currently project to have 8 players on the books totaling $140.2M in salary. The team would be roughly $47.6M under the tax and has $55.6M of 1st Apron space to fill out its roster (excluding Kuminga’s potential deal). Curry and Podziemski are 2 players that would likely need to be extended, along with players such as De’Anthony Melton (non-bird), Kevon Looney (Full Bird), and Gary Payton II (Full Bird) also being UFAs. The team’s flexibility could open up even more in 2026-2027 with Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins having POs that could be exercised; however, their respective futures with the organization could prove to be murky before that offseason is reached.
Pros and Cons to Extending Kuminga From a Warriors Perspective
Roster Building Strategy Pros
Removes uncertainty, which is normally not conducive to the roster-building process
Complements the skill sets of the franchise player
Takes advantage of projected rising Salary Cap
The Warriors have a need for younger building blocks. Kuminga is the youngest rostered player on the Warriors. He is still a very raw player, having only played 4528 minutes and 211 games across his career. Additionally, he has only recently started games (74 starts over his 3 seasons).
Avg Team Age: 27.6 (6th oldest in the league)
Avg Age by Minutes: 29 (4th oldest in the league)
Dynamic 2-way players are hard to come by and prove to be foundational building blocks for contending teams
Positive career trajectory as demonstrated by his statistical improvements year-over-year
Secures a young building-block and foundational piece for the next iteration of the Warriors dynasty
Creates another higher-salary salary slot for trade purposes down the line (if needed)
Roster Building Strategy Cons
Banking on one year of highly improved performance
Relying on a smaller sample size of data to validate long-term investment
While there is risk in letting Kuminga hit RFA (his value could go up), the team does gain additional leverage
There is also more evidence supporting who he is as a player, which would allow the team to more accurately gauge Kuminga’s value
Committing a lot of money right now to a player who has a degree of overlap (positionally) with key player (Draymond Green)
Kuminga’s relationship with HC Steve Kerr has not always been smooth
Financial-Based Strategy Pros
Avoids letting the market dictate the price (RFA)
There are multiple cap space teams that could try and lure Kuminga away, such as the Spurs, Rockets, or the Nets
Can increase cap space in 2025-26 if the first year of the extension is less than Kuminga’s $22.9M cap hold
If Kuminga continues to take steps forward and has another great season, his potential contract will very likely increase even more
By extending him now the team could be getting good value and keep its cap sheet cleaner
Pencils in a long-term building block
Creates another higher-salary salary slot for trade purposes down the line (if needed)
Financial-Based Strategy Cons
Limits cap space flexibility in future years
Would reduce cap space in 2025-26 if the first year of the extension is greater than Kuminga’s $22.9M cap hold
Could push the Warriors over the tax again in 2025-2026
And potentially over the aprons if the extension numbers continue to rise (along with other moves made), which is something the team worked hard to position itself to avoid in 2024-2025
Options if an Agreement isn’t Reached and Important Facts
The Curry Factor
Curry is the face of the franchise and its highest usage player
Surrounding him with talent that helps elevate his respective skill sets is of paramount importance
Explanation: Kuminga can help open up the floor with his size, athleticism, and versatility. Given that he has shown year of year improvement, he will also have the ability to shoulder a bigger burden moving forward, taking some responsibilities away from Curry.
Contract Comps
These contract extension comps are forwards/wings who have all signed extensions or faced RFA within the last number of off-seasons. The comps help set a potential valuation range for Kuminga based on market precedent.
And these numbers are the implied salary values as cap percentages of the 2024-25 Salary Cap. Based on these numbers, the projected range for Kuminga is too large. After eliminating the outliers and by choosing the best comps and finding the middle-point in order to narrow the range, Kuminga’s valuation range would be set at approximately $26-32M AAV.
Valuation Approach and Offers
As stated above (and based on the comps), a fair projected valuation range for Kuminga is $26-32M AAV. In my opinion, the Warriors should attempt to work out a favorable extension now, but should be prepared to use RFA as a fallback option if needed. With Kuminga’s camp potentially wanting a max contract for its client, the impasse might be too large to make up. While I personally prefer to reach a strategic resolution earlier, the team would still maintain a large degree of leverage in RFA negotiations, especially considering the fact that as presently constructed, only the Brooklyn Nets and Houston Rockets project to have substantial cap space (others could open up enough room). If Kuminga performs well in the 2024-2025 season, then the Warriors would presumably be more comfortable going up the value-ladder to meet his demands. Additionally, the team’s approach should be centered on AAV, with the contract length and structure determined on the agreed-upon AAV. I would recommend not giving incentives since the organization seemingly wants to duck the Aprons, with unlikely incentives counting toward the team salary apron calculation (in contract proposals incentive calculations will still appear). Finally, due to a new CBA rule, the Warriors can offer a 5th year (which was previously only permitted in terms of rookie-scale max extensions). A potential deal on the lower end of the valuation range would approximate the following:
And this is what a potential deal on the higher end of the valuation would look like:
Potential RFA and Trade Suitors
Due to Kuminga’s potential, there would surely be a number of teams very interested in acquiring his talents--at the right price. While his RFA status might scare teams off, due to the likelihood that the Warriors could/would match whatever offer sheets Kuminga receives, there are still a number of teams that could be enticed by the prospect of attempting to acquire him, in order to add a player of very high upside to it’s respective roster. Rebuilding teams seeking to add young talent could be interested, as well as cap space teams seeking to gain more big salary slots and looking to take advantage of a market opportunity. Additionally, the Warriors could trade Kuminga before the October extension deadline, which would give Kuminga’s new team the chance to extend him. The Warriors could also use Kuminga to try and acquire a star-level player. In general, teams such as the Nets, Spurs, Pistons, Hornets, Jazz, Knicks, and Blazers could be interested in acquiring Kuminga’s services (one way or another). There is also a (smaller) chance of a S&T being conducted next offseason. However, that would require cooperation from the Warriors (and once again they could agree to match any deal that Kuminga is given).
Final Thoughts
Currently, only four players have signed rookie-scale extensions (all being max deals). Of the remaining players, Kuminga projects to be one of the more fascinating situations. If a deal is not agreed upon, it could signal that the negotiations parties were unable to find a sweet-spot number to agree upon, or, that one (or both) sides preferred to wait for RFA (among other things). That said, while I have Kuminga’s value pinned at an range of $26-32M, some of the other freshly signed max deals could raise the range. If Kuminga takes a lower number, it could signal his camp prioritizing security and not trusting the projected Free Agent landscape in the 2025-2026 offseason. Regardless, non-max rookie scale extension negotiations and finalized numbers are always fascinating to monitor!