How High Can This Hawk Fly?
Jalen Johnson: An Extension Overview and Breakdown
Overview
Jalen Johnson’s ascension to becoming one of the NBA’s future bright young stars was rapid. After only playing 13 games at Duke and withdrawing from the team, Johnson was selected 20th overall in the 2021 Draft. His first two seasons were mundane. Johnson had no real role in his rookie season, only playing 120 minutes across 22 games. Johnson earned more play time during his second year, reaching the one-thousand-minute plateau; however, as a player, he was inefficient and still not the most effective. Despite this unproductive period, Johnson still showed signs of having a high 2-way potential—a potential that began to be realized during his third season. During Johnson’s third season, he took significant strides in terms of his development, becoming a key member of a Hawks organization that ostensibly recognized him as a key building block and foundational player. This creates an interesting dynamic between team and player during negotiations. Johnson’s present value, but more importantly his future value, are both high. Even though Johnson’s on-court play has not necessarily warranted a massive extension—it is one that he will surely seek and is likely to obtain at a future point in time. Johnson constitutes the type of player that is an archetype, and his player profile is coveted throughout the league. This, in an of itself, will translate into big contracts.
This overview will profile Johnson, his value, and contract comps, and will provide an analytical glimpse into the Hawks’ current team- and roster-building strategies in order to paint a clearer picture of what, in my opinion, a Johnson extension could look like. Finally, if you would like a slide deck + appendix version of this newsletter (for those who prefer visuals!) that has additional tidbits of information and stats, feel free to download the PDF attached below!
Johnson Player Profile and Contract History
On-Court Value
Rim Pressure and Finishing Ability
Using his athleticism and size, Johnson’s ability to get to the rim has improved year-to-year, and while he is still not the most accurate finisher (shot 68% at the rim and 44% from the short midrange in 23-24), those numbers chart an upward trajectory. Additionally, he had the 23rd most dunk attempts in the league.
Overall Shooting Progression and Playmaking
In 2023-24, Johnson improved his FG% from almost all locations on the floor, the exception being from the short midrange (where he went from 45% to 44%). He averaged a career high of 35.5% on 3.6 3FGA/GM. On a playmaking front, in 2023-24 Johnson’s AST% ranked in the 83rd percentile and his AST:USG was in the 75th.
Versatile Defender and Overall Defensive Impact
Johnson has demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions across his career, giving him the ability to defend across the front court and switch onto guards. Johnson grades out well on defensive metrics, such as D-EPM, where in 2022-23 his D-EPM was +1.4 (88th percentile) and in 2023-24 it was +0.4 (72nd percentile). He had a DFG% of 47.6%, which ranked 13th out of the 27 players who played 42+ games and defended 15+ FGAs. Johnson’s STL% ranked in the 81st percentile in 2022-23 and in the 72nd percentile in 2023-24. Finally, he is a great defensive rebounder (ranked 99th percentile in fgDRB% in 2022-23 and 77th in 2023-24) and rarely fouls (86th percentile in Foul% in 2023-24).
Career Trajectory, as seen below by his Darko DPM chart below:
Hawks’ Financial Situation
The Hawks head into the 2024-25 season with $1.3M in Tax space and $5.3M of 1st Apron Space (the team is hard capped at it). The team currently has 15 guaranteed contracts on the roster. Regarding 2025 and beyond, in the 2025-26 offseason, the Hawks project to have 11 players on their books totaling $138M in salary. The team would have roughly $49M in Tax space and $55M in 1st Apron Space. Capela and Nance are UFAs, and Young and Hunter become extension eligible.
Pros and Cons to Extending Johnson From a Hawks Perspective
Roster-Building Strategy Pros
Removes uncertainty, which is normally not conducive to the roster-building process
Takes advantage of projected rising Salary Cap
Positive career trajectory
Secures a young building-block and key wing piece to pair next to #1 overall pick Risacher
Creates another higher-salary salary slot for trade purposes down the line (if needed)
However, would be subject to the poison-pill for the next season
By extending Johnson at a sizable number, he would become one of the, if not the, main building blocks for the organization
Roster-Building Strategy Cons
While there is risk in letting Johnson hit RFA (his value could go up), the team does gain additional leverage
There is also more evidence supporting who he is as a player, which would allow the team to more accurately gauge Johnson’s value
Signing Johnson would mean that the Hawks have 4 wings on sizable contracts, dedicating a large portion of the Team Salary to one position group
Is this a desired outcome?
Is Johnson ready to become a face of the franchise player, a conversation his extension would push him into
Financial-Based Strategy Pros
Avoids letting the market dictate the price (RFA)
There are multiple cap space teams that could try and lure Johnson away (such as the Nets)
Can increase cap space in 2025-26 if the first year of the extension is less than Johnson’s $13.5M cap hold
If Johnson continues to take steps forward and has another good season, his potential contract will likely increase. By extending him now the team could be getting better value and keep its cap sheet cleaner.
Creates another higher-salary salary slot for trade purposes down the line (if needed)
Financial-Based Strategy Cons
Limits cap space flexibility in future years
Would reduce cap space in 2025-26 if the first year of the extension is greater than Johnson’s $13.5M cap hold
If Johnson does not take steps forward in his development, the organization could suddenly be stuck with a bad value contract
Brings the organization closer to the Luxury Tax, something it likely wants to avoid
Options if an Agreement isn’t Reached and Important Facts
The Complicating Factors
The Hawks timeline and the Luxury Tax
Explanation: This offseason, the Hawks appear to have started adjusting both its short- and long-term roster-building strategies. The franchise currently faces questions about which players are building blocks, and which are not. At the forefront of this conversation is Trae Young, whose future is most likely up in the air. What the team does with Young will impact the rest of the roster, Regardless, Johnson is viewed as a key piece, and, according to certain reports, is one of if not the only “untouchable” players on the roster. The question thus becomes whether he is ready for this role, which would be reflected in his extension. Finally, another important fact is that the organization presumably does not want to be subject to the Luxury Tax, which it is currently bucking up against in 2024-25, and could continue to do so moving forward.
Contract Comps
These contract extension comps comprise centers who have all signed extensions or faced RFA within the last number of off-seasons. The comps help set a potential valuation range for Johnson based on market precedent.
The above numbers are the implied salary values as cap percentages of the 2024-25 Salary Cap. Based on these numbers, the projected range for Johnson is slightly too large. After eliminating the outliers and by choosing the best comps and finding the middle-point in order to narrow the range, Johnson’s valuation range could be set at approximately $27-33M AAV.
Valuation Approach and Offers
As stated above (and based upon the comps), my projected valuation range for Johnson is $27-33M AAV. Johnson’s upside is obvious. He possesses a somewhat rare combination of size, skill, and athleticism that provide him with a solid foundation off which to build. When factoring in the on-ball playmaking potential and defensive proficiency, his 2-way potential is legitimate. Johnson is, without question, a part of an archetype and player profile that is coveted around the league, which in turn creates a higher valuation. Additionally, given the current state of the roster, Johnson is an important piece for the Hawks, both in the short- and long- term. The opportunity to pencil in players at a team’s wing spots for many years to come (between Johnson and #1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher) is very valuable. While both of these players’ respective timelines might not necessarily align (as Johnson would be on a hefty extension while Risacher would be on his rookie contract), their partnership could be a strong and sustainable foundation for a long-term successful Hawks team. Thus, I would have a preference to extend Johnson before the extension deadline. However, there are two caveats: first, if the Hawks want to use the leverage created by RFA to get a better deal for the organization; and second, if the Hawks should set its books up in a way to become a cap space team in 2025-26. If this was the case, taking advantage of Johnson’s low cap hold could be important to maintain flexibility. Both of these caveats would be understandable and justified courses of action in my opinion. That said, if this is not a goal, the Hawks should prefer to extend Johnson this offseason, even if the number goes slightly higher than my projected range.
A potential deal on the lower end of the valuation range would approximate the following:
And this is what a potential deal on the higher end of the valuation would look like:
It must be said that, in my opinion, there is little chance that Johnson will accept a deal on the lower end since he (and his agents) most likely accord a much higher value to his skillset, contributions, and potential, with some reports stating that he is seeking a max. Additionally, if Johnson and his team are unhappy with the Hawks offers, waiting for RFA could be an option, as he would have an additional season under his belt to prove himself.
Potential Johnson Suitors
In terms of suitors, if Johnson did in fact hit RFA, teams with cap space would certainly perk up their ears. However, in my opinion, it is highly unlikely that the Hawks face a situation where Johnson is not on the team’s books moving forward. If there was an impasse in extension negotiations, a whole host of teams would certainly become interested. That said, it is hard to imagine such a scenario playing out, especially if one is to believe the reports that Johnson is the one true untouchable player on the roster.
Final Thoughts
Predicting what will ultimately occur with this situation is difficult. I am of the belief that the two parties will come to an agreement before the deadline, but it is not a certainty. It is a situation to monitor, but regardless I still expect Johnson to be a part of the Hawks’ long-term plans, even if the parties involved were unable to agree to an extension this offseason. Time will tell!